Method paperThe rules behind our panels

“Is the Chinese registry down?” is a measurement question. Most answers to it are measurement errors.

This page is the method behind our availability panels: what one observer, from one network, with one client, can and cannot conclude about whether an official Chinese source is reachable. Each rule below exists because we watched its absence produce a wrong conclusion — once in our own published writing, which we withdrew.

· Distilled from measurements taken 5–9 August 2026 · Prepared by Currawong Web’s China-side verification network.

Short answer

Reachability claims need two vantage points, paired user agents, and same-session controls — and must keep “could not connect” distinct from “was refused”. Without the controls, a dead proxy reads as a blocked country. Without the paired clients, a bot filter reads as an outage. We have observed both, dated, on official Chinese hosts.

The five rules

  • 1. Two vantage points, or say which one. Every claim is tagged with where it was measured from: a consumer connection inside mainland China, a commercial datacentre proxy outside it, or both as a pair. A result without its vantage is not a result — the same URL can serve one path and refuse the other on the same afternoon.
  • 2. Controls in every session. Each round requests one Chinese government host (www.gov.cn) and one Chinese commercial host (www.baidu.com) from the same machine, moments apart. If the controls fail, the round is voided and says nothing about the targets — it is never reported as “the sites were down”. The controls verdict is recorded in the published data, machine-readable, per round.
  • 3. Paired user agents. Every target is requested twice: once as a plain command-line client, once with a desktop-browser user agent. Official hosts filter by client type, and the filtering is not stable over time — a host that returns 403 to a script one day can drop its connection entirely the next.
  • 4. Record the first answer. Redirects are not followed and requests are not retried. A 301 is an observation, not an obstacle; a retry that succeeds hides an intermittent failure that a buyer at that moment would have hit. Both practices make data look better than reality, which is the one thing measurement must not do.
  • 5. Keep 0 distinct from 403. “No HTTP status at all” means the connection never completed — timeout, TLS failure, or a dead route. A 403 or 412 means a server received the request and declined it. These are different facts with different causes, and collapsing them into “failed” destroys the dataset’s meaning. Refusal codes are answers; silence is not.

The two artefacts these rules exist to catch

Artefact one: the proxy that failed everywhere

On 7 August 2026 we withdrew a claim we had published — that a Chinese official portal “is generally not reachable from overseas”. The overseas egress we had tested through turned out to fail on .gov.cn, .gov.au and .gov hosts indiscriminately; the decisive counterexample was an Australian government site that failed through that egress while a mainland-China connection opened it normally. The failure travelled with the proxy, not the targets. Two days later, on 9 August 2026, the same shape recurred in the other direction: three official provincial-government files returned HTTP 200 on a direct mainland connection, while the same URLs produced no HTTP status at all through a commercial datacentre proxy — and both control hosts returned 200 on the direct path in the same session. Anyone measuring from only one of those two networks would have published a confident, wrong conclusion.

Artefact two: the filter that looks like an outage

On 8 August 2026, a court host (zxgk.court.gov.cn) returned 403 to a command-line client and 200 to the same request with a desktop-browser user agent, in the same minute. On 9 August 2026, the same probe found that host — now joined by wenshu.court.gov.cn — refusing the command-line client at connection level, no HTTP status at all, while still serving 200 to a browser. Two lessons in one pair of observations: a scripted “outage” can be a bot filter, and the filter itself drifts between days. An undated, single-client observation of these hosts is worthless.

Reproducing it

  • Procedure. HTTPS GET to each host’s front page only, 25-second timeout, no redirects followed, no retries, both user agents per target, controls in the same session, status code and elapsed time recorded as observed. No searches submitted, no CAPTCHA touched, no data collected from any portal — measuring whether a front door opens is a different activity from walking through it.
  • Published runs. Each run’s full output — every host, round, client and the controls verdict — is published as open data under CC BY 4.0: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21859883, alongside the panel and the registry record the runs feed.
  • Disagreement is data. If you run this from another network or date and see something different, that is not a contradiction — vantage and date are part of the result. We publish corrections with attribution, including ones that contradict us; one is already on the registry-availability page.

What this method cannot do

  • It measures doors, not rooms. A 200 on a front page does not mean a search completes — interactive paths can require verification steps a front-page probe never touches.
  • Two vantage points are two, not all. A consumer connection in another Chinese province, or a residential connection abroad, may see something different from both of ours. The method generalises; any single pair of observation points does not.
  • It cannot explain, only observe. The method separates “refused” from “unreachable” and “target” from “route” — it cannot say why a host refuses a client, and we do not guess on its behalf.
  • Nothing about any company. An unreachable portal is a fact about infrastructure on a date — never evidence that a record is missing or that anyone is concealing anything.

Citing this method

Quote or adapt this method freely, including commercially, provided observations you publish with it carry their vantage and date. The underlying runs are open data: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21859883.

Currawong Web, “Measuring China official source availability: the method”, paired-vantage, paired-client availability measurement with same-session controls, distilled from measurements of 5–9 August 2026. https://currawongweb.com/verify/measuring-chinese-official-source-availability/

This page describes a measurement procedure. It is not legal advice, and it is not a statement about any company or about conditions on any network or date beyond the observations cited.